Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice.

Key reasons for AMZN lagging the market

$AMZN – Amazon’s stock has been in a bit of a rut lately. Year-to-date, it’s up a modest 4.6%, significantly trailing the S&P 500’s 16.8% gain and most of its “Magnificent Seven” peers. This lack of momentum feels stark, especially after a post-earnings pop in late October. Some context on why the stock is lagging –

1. AI and Infrastructure Capex Overload: The company guided for ~$125 billion in capital expenditures for 2025—up over 40% from prior years—with most tied to AI builds. This has led to a cash crunch: free cash flow plunged in recent quarters, and AWS operating margins dipped to 32.9% in Q2 from 39.5% in Q1 due to higher depreciation, stock-based comp, and forex hits.

2. AWS Growth Lagging Competitors AWS remains Amazon’s profit powerhouse (17% of revenue but ~50% of operating income), but its growth has cooled to 17-20% year-over-year—below Microsoft’s Azure (39%) and Google Cloud (32%) in recent quarters. Q3 brought a rebound to 20% growth (the highest since late 2022), boosted by deals like the $38B, seven-year OpenAI pact for Nvidia GPUs. Still, the perception of Amazon playing catch-up in the AI arms race has fueled selling—especially as the broader tech sector rotates away from hyperscalers amid high valuations.

3. Regulatory Headwinds and Legal Bills Amazon’s facing a barrage of scrutiny that’s eroding confidence. In September, it settled a $2.5B FTC lawsuit over Prime practices, removing some overhang but highlighting ongoing antitrust risks. November brought fresh EU probes under the Digital Markets Act, potentially labeling AWS a “gatekeeper” and slapping on fines or compliance costs.

4. E-Commerce Pressures and Broader Market Sentiment The retail side (74% of revenue) grew a solid 10% in Q3, but it’s under fire from low-cost disruptors like Temu and Shein, who snag 50% of U.S. shoppers with dirt-cheap imports. Amazon’s “Haul” initiative to counter them has flopped so far, though potential tariffs could help. Add in tepid top-line guidance (Q3 missed Street estimates slightly) and a high P/E ratio (35x forward earnings), and the stock’s become a relative value trap versus peers.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice.

A Strong Investment Case for Prologis Inc. $PLD 

Business Prospects – Prologis is at the core of the data center buildout that is essential to the broader artificial intelligence (AI) story. High Occupancy and Record Leasing Signal Underlying Strength. REITs have been a poor investment in the last three years, and Prologis is no exception. Future growth will come from the company’s pivot into sectors such as data centers and sustainable energy and storage. The company currently has 5.2 gigawatts of utility-fed capacity that has either been installed or is committed.

Financials – Prologis rose on Q3 results beat, 2025 core FFO forecast hike. The company lifted its 2025 core FFO forecast to a range of $5.78 per share to $5.81 per share, from previous expectations $5.75 per share to $5.80 per share. Q3 core FFO was $1.49/share, compared with analysts’ avg. estimate of $1.44/share. Q3 revenue of $2.21 bln was above analysts’ avg. estimate of $2.16 bln. Company’s dividend, which increased by 12% in the last year, looks safe. It also means that the company will have ample cash on hand to pay down its debt, which is in healthy ranges.

Please consider becoming a subscriber. You will get an exclusive access to my watchlists here and my private discord channel where I share my real-time trades with you to trade along with me. I spent considerable time/effort each day in compiling the best of the best trading strategies.