Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice.

Key reasons for AMZN lagging the market

$AMZN – Amazon’s stock has been in a bit of a rut lately. Year-to-date, it’s up a modest 4.6%, significantly trailing the S&P 500’s 16.8% gain and most of its “Magnificent Seven” peers. This lack of momentum feels stark, especially after a post-earnings pop in late October. Some context on why the stock is lagging –

1. AI and Infrastructure Capex Overload: The company guided for ~$125 billion in capital expenditures for 2025—up over 40% from prior years—with most tied to AI builds. This has led to a cash crunch: free cash flow plunged in recent quarters, and AWS operating margins dipped to 32.9% in Q2 from 39.5% in Q1 due to higher depreciation, stock-based comp, and forex hits.

2. AWS Growth Lagging Competitors AWS remains Amazon’s profit powerhouse (17% of revenue but ~50% of operating income), but its growth has cooled to 17-20% year-over-year—below Microsoft’s Azure (39%) and Google Cloud (32%) in recent quarters. Q3 brought a rebound to 20% growth (the highest since late 2022), boosted by deals like the $38B, seven-year OpenAI pact for Nvidia GPUs. Still, the perception of Amazon playing catch-up in the AI arms race has fueled selling—especially as the broader tech sector rotates away from hyperscalers amid high valuations.

3. Regulatory Headwinds and Legal Bills Amazon’s facing a barrage of scrutiny that’s eroding confidence. In September, it settled a $2.5B FTC lawsuit over Prime practices, removing some overhang but highlighting ongoing antitrust risks. November brought fresh EU probes under the Digital Markets Act, potentially labeling AWS a “gatekeeper” and slapping on fines or compliance costs.

4. E-Commerce Pressures and Broader Market Sentiment The retail side (74% of revenue) grew a solid 10% in Q3, but it’s under fire from low-cost disruptors like Temu and Shein, who snag 50% of U.S. shoppers with dirt-cheap imports. Amazon’s “Haul” initiative to counter them has flopped so far, though potential tariffs could help. Add in tepid top-line guidance (Q3 missed Street estimates slightly) and a high P/E ratio (35x forward earnings), and the stock’s become a relative value trap versus peers.

Please consider becoming a subscriber. You will get an exclusive access to my watchlists here and my private discord channel where I share my real-time trades with you to trade along with me. I spent considerable time/effort each day in compiling the best of the best trading strategies.

Similar Posts

  • | |

    Is Google ready to make all time highs

    By11CTrades

    Is Google ready to make all time highs?

    I generate positive cash flow each trading day. Feel free to do it along with me at https://discord.gg/A8jKyGAucy

    Alphabet GOOG GOOGL shares surged higher on 4/23/26 after reports that the company plans to invest up to $40 billion in AI startup Anthropic, extending its role in the artificial intelligence race while also deepening ties with a key rival, according to Bloomberg. Google said Anthropic will receive $10 billion in immediate funding in cash, while a further $30 billion would depend on performance milestones, valuing the startup at $350 billion based on recent financing terms, Google said in line with earlier valuation rounds. Google said the funding would support expansion of computing capacity for AI model training, an area seen as critical as demand for data center infrastructure rises. The company continues to both compete and collaborate with Anthropic in developing advanced AI systems as firms race to scale compute resources.

    Please consider becoming a subscriber. You will get an exclusive access to my private discord channel where I share my real-time trades ( stocks names, entry and exit points) with you to trade along with me. I spent considerable time/effort each day in compiling the best of the best trading strategies. Discord: Join me on the success at my premium discord channel..

  • | | |

    Watch List for Aug 13, 2025

    By11CTrades

    Needless to say that this blog is for my own tracking. My plan assumes a stable market condition. Any disruptions (macro or company specific) can nullify my thesis.

    $BMNR – With Ethereum making higher highs, ETH treasury companies are looking lucrative. I’m trading them tactically. Not holding them for too long (not yet). Very volatile so a strong risk management is warranted. Strong returns do come with strong risks management. Stop loss below 57.80

    $ETH – ETH is a proxy for Ethereum. I’m accumulating.

    $SOUN – any pullback by 5% or more is getting bought in my plans.

    $SOFI – expected reduction in rates will help SOFI. Expecting it to tread toward 26.

    $TOL $PHM – I’m accumulating home builders in any pull backs.

    $NVDA – no change in its bull case. Marching toward 190 provided market conditions remain stable.

    $NBIS – I continue to accumulate. Target 82. Stop loss below 69.

    $MU – MU just revised their revenue and earnings forecast. I expect it to march toward 135. Getting out below 123.59.

    $MOD – A lucrative data center play. Getting out below 136.

    $BWXT – A new bull in nuclear tech. getting out below 173.85

    $BA keeping it. still going strong and coming off its long multi-year base. It has beaten $SPY over the last year.

    $TSLA – getting sexier. getting out below 332.

    $COST – holding strong as it closed above 200 and 50 D EMA. I’m accumulating.

    $META – making higher highs. Continue to accumulate.

    $DASH – any weakness is to be brought. taking loss below 258.9

    $CAVA – to present a golden opportunity in the range of $60-$63. Their same store sales slowing to ~6% vs ~8%. Better times to re-emerge.

  • | | | | |

    Google is poised for sustained growth

    By11CTrades

    HOW TO HANDILY BEAT S&P 500!

    $GOOGL $GOOG Google is poised for sustained growth and innovation into 2026, fueled by these key drivers:

    1) Gemini continues to advance rapidly: with Gemini 3 models leading benchmarks in reasoning and multimodality, the AI suite is deeply integrating across products, powering everything from Search to Workspace.

    2) Search is being reinvented with AI: features like AI Overviews and AI Mode are driving higher query growth and engagement, transforming Search into a more intelligent, conversational experience.

    3) TPUs are in high demand: Google’s custom chips are powering internal AI workloads and attracting major external partners, accelerating Cloud performance and efficiency.

    4) Google Cloud is surging ahead: Strong enterprise adoption of AI infrastructure and solutions has driven accelerating revenue growth, with a massive backlog signaling continued momentum.

    5) YouTube bolsters the advertising ecosystem: Robust ad revenue growth, led by Shorts and connected TV, is strengthening Google’s core monetization engine.

    6) Robotaxis emerge as a bold new frontier: Waymo’s rapid scaling, with expansions to dozens of cities and targets for millions of weekly rides, positions it as a high-potential growth pillar.

      Please consider becoming a subscriber. You will get an exclusive access to my watchlists here and my private discord channel where I share my real-time trades with you to trade along with me. I spent considerable time/effort each day in compiling the best of the best trading strategies. Discord: Join me on the success https://discord.com/invite/dPX53 .

    2. | | | | |

      Best Investing Names for 2026

      By11CTrades

      HOW TO HANDILY BEAT S&P 500! My discord https://discord.gg/QeQBeJFeJE where I share stock picks and my entry and exit points each trading day.

      Here are the top 10 investment themes poised to outperform the S&P 500 ($SPY) in 2026, driven by the ongoing AI infrastructure boom, power demand surge, and related megatrends. Good to accumulate on days of market contractions.

      1. Capitalize on AI-driven memory and semiconductor demand ($MU $WDC $NVDA $AMD). High-bandwidth memory and storage remain critical bottlenecks as AI training scales.
      2. Benefit from surging power needs with leading energy producers ($CEG $VST $NRG). Nuclear and flexible generation providers are securing long-term deals to fuel hyperscale data centers.
      3. Tap into explosive data center infrastructure growth ($VRT $NBIS $IREN $ETN $APH $PWR). Cooling, power management, interconnects, and construction are essential for high-density AI racks.
      4. Leverage data as the core fuel for AI training ($MDB $SNOW $ORCL). Modern data platforms and lake houses enable scalable AI workloads.
      5. Ride the dominance of hyper scalers in cloud and AI ($AMZN $GOOGL). Massive capex on AI infrastructure continues to drive their ecosystems.
      6. Protect against rising cyber threats in digitized, cloud-scaled environments ($PANW $CRWD). Security remains a top priority as AI adoption accelerates vulnerabilities.
      7. Participate in the accelerating space economy ($RKLB). Reusable rockets and satellite networks support global connectivity and future AI applications (watch for potential SpaceX developments).
      8. Profit from mainstream adoption of prediction markets and fintech innovation ($HOOD). Platforms enabling real-world event betting and broader digital finance trends.
      9. Hedge against currency devaluation and mounting debt ($GLD $SLV). Precious metals offer protection in an uncertain macro environment.
      10. Bet on real-world AI automation in autonomy and robotics ($TSLA). Advances in self-driving tech and humanoid robots represent the next frontier of applied AI.

      Please consider becoming a subscriber. You will get an exclusive access to my watchlists here and my private discord channel where I share my real-time trades with you to trade along with me. I spent considerable time/effort each day in compiling the best of the best trading strategies. Discord: Join me on the success https://discord.gg/QeQBeJFeJE .

    Leave a Reply