Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice.

A Strong Investment Case for CENX – Century Aluminum

About CENX – Century Aluminum Co. is a producer of aluminum and operates aluminum reduction facilities, or smelters, in the United States and Iceland. Its products include standard ingots, T-ingot, extrusion billet, horizontal direct chill ingot, molten, slab, and sow.

A Case for CENX – Aluminum is moving from a supporting role to center stage in the global green transition. The metal is light and strong, and also endlessly recyclable. This makes it essential for electric vehicles (EVs), solar panels, power lines, and low-carbon buildings. Aluminum is critical for national security – an essential input for military aircrafts and advanced defense systems. Global demand for aluminum is rising fast as countries expand renewable power and electric transport. The International Aluminum Institute (IAI) expects aluminum demand to rise by 40% by 2030. This growth is fueled by clean-tech uses.

Trump tariffs put 50% charge on all non-domestic aluminum products. As a result, aluminum spot premium have gone up nearly 100%. CENX raised guidance for the year but hinted that the full effects will come next year. A shift in U.S. industrial sector policy, added by these tariffs and the focus on domestic manufacturing, is creating a uniquely profitable environment for CENX.

The financial impact of this policy is visible in the company’s guidance. For Q3’25, Century issued an optimistic forecast for Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $115 million to $125 million. Management explicitly linked this strong earnings projection to the benefits of higher domestic premiums, offering clear evidence of the policy’s effect on profitability. Century is actively reinvesting to meet the growing demand for domestically sourced aluminum.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice.

Key reasons for AMZN lagging the market

$AMZN – Amazon’s stock has been in a bit of a rut lately. Year-to-date, it’s up a modest 4.6%, significantly trailing the S&P 500’s 16.8% gain and most of its “Magnificent Seven” peers. This lack of momentum feels stark, especially after a post-earnings pop in late October. Some context on why the stock is lagging –

1. AI and Infrastructure Capex Overload: The company guided for ~$125 billion in capital expenditures for 2025—up over 40% from prior years—with most tied to AI builds. This has led to a cash crunch: free cash flow plunged in recent quarters, and AWS operating margins dipped to 32.9% in Q2 from 39.5% in Q1 due to higher depreciation, stock-based comp, and forex hits.

2. AWS Growth Lagging Competitors AWS remains Amazon’s profit powerhouse (17% of revenue but ~50% of operating income), but its growth has cooled to 17-20% year-over-year—below Microsoft’s Azure (39%) and Google Cloud (32%) in recent quarters. Q3 brought a rebound to 20% growth (the highest since late 2022), boosted by deals like the $38B, seven-year OpenAI pact for Nvidia GPUs. Still, the perception of Amazon playing catch-up in the AI arms race has fueled selling—especially as the broader tech sector rotates away from hyperscalers amid high valuations.

3. Regulatory Headwinds and Legal Bills Amazon’s facing a barrage of scrutiny that’s eroding confidence. In September, it settled a $2.5B FTC lawsuit over Prime practices, removing some overhang but highlighting ongoing antitrust risks. November brought fresh EU probes under the Digital Markets Act, potentially labeling AWS a “gatekeeper” and slapping on fines or compliance costs.

4. E-Commerce Pressures and Broader Market Sentiment The retail side (74% of revenue) grew a solid 10% in Q3, but it’s under fire from low-cost disruptors like Temu and Shein, who snag 50% of U.S. shoppers with dirt-cheap imports. Amazon’s “Haul” initiative to counter them has flopped so far, though potential tariffs could help. Add in tepid top-line guidance (Q3 missed Street estimates slightly) and a high P/E ratio (35x forward earnings), and the stock’s become a relative value trap versus peers.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice.

How to diversify your investments with emerging markets like India!

Growing economy – the Indian GDP expanded by 7.8% from the previous year in the three months to June of 2025, accelerating from the 7.4% in the previous period to mark the sharpest growth rate in five quarters.

Growing middle class – the middle class is the fastest-growing major segment of the Indian population in both percentage and absolute terms, rising at 6.3 percent per year and 338 million between 1995 and 2021. It now represents 31 percent of the population and is expected to be 38 percent by 2031 and 60 percent in 2047. Private consumption, which already contributes 60% of GDP, is projected to make India the third-largest consumer market by 2026. Private consumption has already doubled from US $1 trillion in 2013 to US $2.1 trillion in 2024, faster than China, the US, and Germany.

Strong performing stock market – Rs. 10,000 in year 2000 would have grown to Rs 332,500 in BSE Sensex index. Indian markets continue to outperform the major emerging markets.

How to get a pie of India growth – the INDA ETF provides investors with broad exposure to Indian equities, tracking the performance of the MSCI India Index. Issued by BlackRock, this ETF includes large- and mid-cap Indian companies across sectors, making it a popular choice for those looking to tap into India’s growth potential in areas like financials, information technology, and consumer goods.  INDA’s holdings are diverse, with leading companies such as Reliance Industries and Infosys. This ETF can be attractive to investors seeking to diversify internationally, especially given India’s projected economic growth and favorable demographic trends. However, investing in INDA also carries risks related to emerging markets, including currency fluctuations, regulatory changes, and economic volatility. 

Please consider becoming a subscriber. You will get an exclusive access to my watchlists here and my private discord channel where I share my real-time trades with you to trade along with me. I spent considerable time/effort each day in compiling the best of the best trading strategies.